Yuval Avidani
Author
"AMD's stock climbed way more than NVIDIA's, even though NVIDIA is the undisputed queen." Sounds like a typo, but that's exactly what happened in the AI chip market in 2026. Let's unpack the story with real numbers, because behind it hides an important lesson about how the stock market actually works.
One important clarification before we dive in: everything here is based on reports and market data that keep changing all the time, and this is not investment advice or financial guidance. Just a breakdown of a fascinating story.
The Queen Who Slowed Down: NVIDIA
Let's start with the biggest of them all. NVIDIA is still the chip-king of the AI era, with a market cap of around $4.72 trillion as of July 2, 2026, and last quarter it reported record data-center revenue of $75.2 billion, a 92 percent jump year over year. It sells the cards the whole world wants, and its monopoly on AI chips is nearly absolute.
But here's the twist. Despite all that, NVIDIA's stock rose "only" about 34 percent over the past year, the lowest of the three. How can the strongest company deliver the lowest return? The answer is in the size, and we'll get to why in a second.
The Challenger That Skyrocketed: AMD
Now for the star of the story. AMD's stock rose about 310 percent in a year, its market cap climbed to roughly $844 billion, and the price jumped to around $518 a share. While NVIDIA gave 34 percent, AMD gave several times that.
Why did this happen? A few forces worked together here. First, a smaller base: when a company is worth $844 billion instead of $4.7 trillion, every new dollar of AI revenue moves the needle much more. Second, there's real substance behind it: AMD's data-center revenue grew about 57 percent year over year to $5.8 billion, and its MI chip series is finally gaining traction. Third, and this might be the most significant part, in October 2025 OpenAI signed a massive deal to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD chips, with an option for OpenAI to acquire up to roughly 10 percent of AMD. That positioned AMD as NVIDIA's first real competitor.
And regarding the specific question, did AMD really rise 3x more than NVIDIA? It depends on the time window: from the start of 2026, AMD rose roughly 3x to 7x more than NVIDIA; over a full year, even more. However you look at it, AMD's percentages wiped the floor with NVIDIA's. But pay attention to the critical detail: multiples in percentage don't mean multiples in dollars. NVIDIA is still five times bigger than AMD in absolute value.
The Phoenix That Rose from the Ashes: Intel
And the third story is maybe the most dramatic one. Intel, which lagged years behind the AI wave, jumped about 480 percent in a year, from a low of roughly $19 to a peak above $142. How did a company everyone had written off become a star?
Not because of profits, but because of hope. Intel is still losing money (a loss of about $3.17 billion), but in 2026 a few things happened that changed the narrative: the US government took a 9.9 percent stake, NVIDIA and SoftBank came in as strategic backers, and its new manufacturing technology (18A) started working. Investors bet on a turnaround, not on results that already exist.
What This All Teaches Us About the Market
Now for the big insight, because this is where the real value lies. This story reveals three principles worth knowing.
The first: in percentage terms, it's easier for a small company to jump. A 310 percent rise on a $200 billion base is "easier" than a 34 percent rise on $3.5 trillion. That's why challengers usually deliver higher returns in percentage terms, even while the leader keeps growing in actual dollars.
The second: a stock's price reflects expectations for the future, not just present performance. AMD trades at a much higher price-to-earnings ratio than NVIDIA, because the market has already priced in years of flawless success. If it stumbles even a little, the fall will be sharp. That's the risk of a "hope stock."
The third, and this is the most important one: this entire rally is riding on one giant wave, the capital expenditures of the cloud giants on AI infrastructure, expected to reach about $725 billion in 2026 and cross a trillion in 2027. As long as that wave keeps going, everyone rises. The day it slows down, everyone will feel it.
Bottom Line, and My Take
So let's sum up. NVIDIA is still the queen in dollar terms, but AMD and Intel delivered much higher percentage returns, because they're smaller, because they have a "turnaround" story, and because investors are betting on the future. Behind it all stands one wave: the AI investment race of the cloud giants.
In my view, this is exactly what makes this period both fascinating and risky at the same time. There's massive concentration here: a huge chunk of the entire market's gains depends on a handful of chip companies. That's great while the wave is rising, but it's also a breaking point if it turns. And again, the important reminder: this is not investment advice, the numbers keep changing all the time, and everyone is responsible for their own research.
So the question I'll leave you with: when the entire market is riding one wave of AI spending, what happens the day the giants decide they've spent enough?